It is possible that I am naive about international affairs. In fact, in many respects, it is quite likely. I am confident, in part based on the recent article in Rolling Stone, that depending on those who have a history of treating others poorly, if not brutally, is not the way to win friends and develop lasting influence. I am also pretty confident that those educated at West Point or the U.S. Army War College know this.
What then is the motivation behind many of our activities in the Middle East? Do our leaders believe us to be so stupid that we could not understand a complex, long term plan that askews brutality? If the theory that counter insurgency is prevented by establishing a legitimate government is valid, then encouraging and supporting large scale criminals, commonly known as warlords, whose very presence undermines the rule of law, is insane. Should we not pursue policies that encourage a framework for the constructive airing of grievances, justice, and freedom as suggested recently by Kenneth M. Pollack.
Having ruled out, at least tentatively, ignorance and stupidity, I suggest looking at who is making money here. And how do they make more money has result of long term instability? Or Is Al Queda a greater threat than the mass press had portrayed? Do we really need to spend so much money for a base to purse them? What scenarios have have I overlooked? This further suggests that there are forces who materially profit from instability. But whom? And why?
What we do there matters. Who we select for leadership roles matter. Holdbrooke’s absence mattered. Patraeus’ ability to communicate and frame matter. How we get from where we are to a stable government that can defend its borders and provide opportunities for its citizens to become educated and productive locally and internationally matter.